TERROR-RHYTHM AND POW-ERR
BY IAIN CRAWFORD
What's this all about?
War and revolution are man-made problems. So they can, with calmness and patience, be put right by man. First, we have to understand how they start. What happens before, during and after a 'revolution'?
1) Most politicians over-dramatise, using lies, deceit and ignorance to generate the negative emotions of enmity, fear, anger, hatred, envy.
2) Negative emotions lead to revolution.
3) Revolution generates conflict; all wars are revolutionary. The sequence, taking about eighty years to complete, runs as follows;
a) first, a war of conquest; the revolution seizes and holds on to power
b) second, a war of over-confidence, to test the revolution's expansionary limits
c) finally, a war of degeneracy, as the revolutionaries try to prevent regime-collapse.
And that's it. You've now understood the framework, so let's add more detail...
1) Most politicians over-dramatise, using lies, deceit and ignorance to generate the negative emotions of enmity, fear, anger, hatred, envy.
2) Negative emotions lead to revolution.
3) Revolution generates conflict; all wars are revolutionary. The sequence, taking about eighty years to complete, runs as follows;
a) first, a war of conquest; the revolution seizes and holds on to power
b) second, a war of over-confidence, to test the revolution's expansionary limits
c) finally, a war of degeneracy, as the revolutionaries try to prevent regime-collapse.
And that's it. You've now understood the framework, so let's add more detail...
‘It is not the strongest, nor the most intelligent, that survive; it is those most adaptable to change.'
Charles Darwin
What exactly is 'power'? How is it measured? What is its purpose?
An evolutionary biologist on the other hand sees power as the ability to adapt and survive through environmental change. In a tsunami, birds can simply fly away, but humans drown, losing power completely. Some environments impose cyclical lifestyles; birds fly south for winter; bears hibernate; salmon migrate to breed. When Africa suffers drought, wildebeest migrate to greener pastures; 'powerful' lions, surrounded by other hostile prides, must stay, facing possible starvation.
The human cycle of war is driven by political loyalty; 'hearts and minds'. Again, the sociologist sees money, weapons, armies and police as 'power'. But what if the public suddenly lose faith in cash and banks? What if the armies are unpaid and mutinous, or devoid of 'fighting spirit'? Why did the Germans follow Hitler into the abyss? Why do people believe in irrational 'ideologies'? Bad events happen because people are emotional as well as rational, willing to support untrue, illegal, or immoral ideas, even if they work against our survival instinct. The objective study of these matters has scarcely got started. To the biologist, humans are just another species, a brainy 'naked ape'. We are clever enough to have invented WMD, but their presence obliges us to abandon the cycle of war; are we bright enough to adapt our behaviour accordingly?
The human cycle of war is driven by p
'Ideology is a branch of zoology'
Antoine De Tracey
So, what happens when the 'pow-errticians' behave dishonestly?
Most leaders are self-serving populists, putting their own short-term interests such as re-election and income ahead of long-term humanitarian concerns. If Putin or Obama has a ‘70% approval rating’, is that approval based on truth, or propaganda? A more accurate measure might say ‘X has a 70% approval rating, but 60% of what he says is lies; he uses bribery in 30% of his transactions; and he debauches the rule of law whenever he can’.
We may say that the US, the EU, China or Islam rules the world, but events suggest that greed, vengeance, fear, envy, pride and aggression are in charge. The masses, the 'cogs in the machine', are kept docile by soap-operas, gossip, sport, beer and drugs; they only awaken after a crisis, to place limits on their leaders' excesses. But those limits are temporary; after a while, it all kicks off again. So yes, power is cyclical.
The history books speak about ‘the age of’, the ‘ascent of’, ‘rise and fall’, ‘downfall’, or ‘collapse’ of regimes such as the Nazis, the USSR, the Hapsburgs, New Labour, and so on? In mediaeval England, the rising 'hero' (William I, Henry II, Edward I and III, Henry V) was always followed by the failing 'villain' (Matilda, John, Edward II, Richard II, Margaret of Anjou). there's enough evidence here to suggest that force ebbs and flows in a ‘rhythm of terror’ - an eighty-year cycle, first noticed 600 years ago by the Moslem historian Ibn Khaldun, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibn_Khaldun.
‘Terror-rhythm’ theory can explain events like the credit crunch, the Iraq War, the end of communism, how long the EU can survive, and much more.
We may say that the US, the EU, China or Islam rules the world, but events suggest that greed, vengeance, fear, envy, pride and aggression are in charge. The masses, the 'cogs in the machine', are kept docile by soap-operas, gossip, sport, beer and drugs; they only awaken after a crisis, to place limits on their leaders' excesses. But those limits are temporary; after a while, it all kicks off again. So yes, power is cyclical.
The history books speak about ‘the age of’, the ‘ascent of’, ‘rise and fall’, ‘downfall’, or ‘collapse’ of regimes such as the Nazis, the USSR, the Hapsburgs, New Labour, and so on? In mediaeval England, the rising 'hero' (William I, Henry II, Edward I and III, Henry V) was always followed by the failing 'villain' (Matilda, John, Edward II, Richard II, Margaret of Anjou). there's enough evidence here to suggest that force ebbs and flows in a ‘rhythm of terror’ - an eighty-year cycle, first noticed 600 years ago by the Moslem historian Ibn Khaldun, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibn_Khaldun.
‘Terror-rhythm’ theory can explain events like the credit crunch, the Iraq War, the end of communism, how long the EU can survive, and much more.
'History doesn't repeat
itself, but it rhymes'
Mark Twain
The cycle has a sequence of;
1) Instigator,
2) Fanatic (eg, Barry Goldwater),
3) Pragmatist (Ronald Reagan),
4) 'Status-seeker' (George W Bush), who creates a 'midlife crisis'
5) 'Moderator' (Obama) and finally,
6) Zealot who presides over collapse (Hitler, Ceausescu, Milosevic, Saddam...Trump?).
Please explain each stage of the cycle?
The INSTIGATOR appears maybe 50 years before the revolution happens. He is a secular Merlin or Moses, a 'wise old man' at best, a 'high priest of hate' at worst. He claims to have all the answers, and can point the way to the 'promised land'. But he is manipulative, supplying the masses with their desired 'quick fix' solution. Most later errors flow from the instigator's flawed ideology; There would have been no USSR or communist China without Marx; no 'scramble for Africa' without a Livingstone; no Nazism without a Clausewitz, no American revolution without Locke or Montesquieu.
'One gets the Guru one deserves'
Mahatma Gandhi
The FANATIC is confrontational; an impatient, determined individual, who 'loves' his movement more than he loves any individual. Without his revolution, he is nothing. A man of intense action, he doesn't know when to stop; his political career is short-lived; like a bee, he sting others into action, then retires. Ayatollah Khomeini and the Iranian revolution is a recent example. But Lenin, Robespierre, Mao Zedong and Henry Morton Stanley can also be classed as fanatics.
The PRAGMATIST reins back, turning the revolution from turmoil into a lasting institution, fights off all rivals, and then sets up new systems of law, the military, commerce, education, etc. In this way, he gives the nation prosperity, and a new 'sense of direction'. 'Prestige projects' such as monuments of various kinds, are built. His career may last up to 40 years. Think Stalin, Bismarck, Ronald Reagan, Talleyrand, Ayatollah Khamenei. Putin, immensely popular in Russia, is a present-day pragmatist.
After many years of this prosperity and stability, those who remember the lean times are all retired or dead. Thus overconfidence sets in, and a STATUS-SEEKER takes charge. He, too, doesn't 'know when to stop', and may even think he is 'destined to rule the world'. Whether it's Kaiser Wilhelm II invading Belgium, Napoleon's march on Moscow, Bush invading Iraq, Khrushchev putting nukes in Cuba, or reckless bankers invading the subprime market in the 'credit crunch' of 2008, stalemate and humiliation are the results. This situation may be called a 'midlife crisis' or 'Thucydides trap', after the Greek historian who wrote about the Peloponnesian wars.
Then, as Lord Acton said, 'the man with the dagger is followed by the man with the sponge'. The MODERATOR is a clean-up act, Nobel prize material, a nice guy trying to run a bad country. He attempts to reconcile disappointed hardliners and would-be reformers, but only brings instability, as in Weimar Germany.
Aggression is now less overt,there are no wars, but still there are assassinations, failed coups, radical books and rentamobs. Examples; Obama, Stresemann, King Louis-Philippe of France, Giolitti of Italy, and, in colonial Africa, Macmillan and De Gaulle.
Aggression is now less overt,there are no wars, but still there are assassinations, failed coups, radical books and rentamobs. Examples; Obama, Stresemann, King Louis-Philippe of France, Giolitti of Italy, and, in colonial Africa, Macmillan and De Gaulle.
Finally, as the revolution has run its course and faces collapse, the ZEALOT is a leader who believes there is 'nothing to lose by fighting to the death'. His approach is Messianic and charismatic, his attitude to the facts is desperate denial.
If he goes to war, he may initially be successful, but ultimately he faces ruin; like Hitler, Mussolini, Tojo, Napoleon III, Enver Pasha of Ottoman Turkey, Saddam, or Milosevic. Donald Trump, or someone very like him, may turn out to be the world's next zealot.
Failing states look for scapegoats, someone to blame for their situation. So there may be a 'massacre of the innocents' - Hitler and the Jews, The Ottomans/Armenians, Bosnians in Yugoslavia, Saddam and the Kurds, Congolese (10 million died under the personal rule of King Leopold II) or the Bengalis (2 million starved in 1942 at the end of the Indian Raj). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congo_Free_State http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bengal_famine_of_1943
If he goes to war, he may initially be successful, but ultimately he faces ruin; like Hitler, Mussolini, Tojo, Napoleon III, Enver Pasha of Ottoman Turkey, Saddam, or Milosevic. Donald Trump, or someone very like him, may turn out to be the world's next zealot.
Failing states look for scapegoats, someone to blame for their situation. So there may be a 'massacre of the innocents' - Hitler and the Jews, The Ottomans/Armenians, Bosnians in Yugoslavia, Saddam and the Kurds, Congolese (10 million died under the personal rule of King Leopold II) or the Bengalis (2 million starved in 1942 at the end of the Indian Raj). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congo_Free_State http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bengal_famine_of_1943
Do our leaders know about this cycle?
George Orwell in 1946, just after Auschwitz and Hiroshima, was forthright; ‘the world is suffering
from some kind of mental disorder which must be diagnosed and cured’. But no progress has been
made since then. Obama writes; ‘Cycles of war and peace... I don’t linger on such thoughts’. The
Pope was in denial; ‘the Holocaust is unfathomable…’ Bush is baffled; ‘it was as if the world had a sickness that it kept inflicting on itself’. When you're inside the frame, you don't see the big picture.
from some kind of mental disorder which must be diagnosed and cured’. But no progress has been
made since then. Obama writes; ‘Cycles of war and peace... I don’t linger on such thoughts’. The
Pope was in denial; ‘the Holocaust is unfathomable…’ Bush is baffled; ‘it was as if the world had a sickness that it kept inflicting on itself’. When you're inside the frame, you don't see the big picture.
So, who was Ibn Khaldun?
His book Muqaddimah, written in 1381, is by our standards racist, sexist, pro- Islam, pro-divine right, pro-slavery, and
very repetitive. Because he lived in a time of decline for
Arabs, the West largely ignored his observations, which were only revived
in Victorian times. The rise and fall of dynasties was to
him ‘a chronic incurable disease’.
But these are not good reasons to 'throw the baby out with the bathwater'.
But these are not good reasons to 'throw the baby out with the bathwater'.
He noticed that
this regime-cycle ‘corresponds to the lifespan of an individual’, and there's abundant evidence for this; the rise of Napoleon I in 1796, to the fall
of Napoleon III in1870, makes seventy-four years; this is also the period
between the start of Bismarck’s Second Reich in 1871, and the end of Hitler’s
Third Reich in 1945; and between the Russian revolution of 1917, and the Soviet
collapse of 1991. From 1919, the Belgians in Rwanda encouraged tribal
racism, which led to the genocide of 1994.
But Ibn Khaldun’s ideas were ignored for 600 years....?
Humans often disregard sound advice for long periods; Gregor Mendel’s research into genetics lay dormant for forty years; it took the Royal Navy 190 years to implement Captain Lancaster’s lemon-juice cure for scurvy; Erik the Viking’s discovery of North America was disregarded for five centuries, until Columbus. The Romans brought central heating to Britain nearly 2000 years ago; the Republic had democracy, a million registered voters; these were not rediscovered until Victorian times.
Humans often disregard sound advice for long periods; Gregor Mendel’s research into genetics lay dormant for forty years; it took the Royal Navy 190 years to implement Captain Lancaster’s lemon-juice cure for scurvy; Erik the Viking’s discovery of North America was disregarded for five centuries, until Columbus. The Romans brought central heating to Britain nearly 2000 years ago; the Republic had democracy, a million registered voters; these were not rediscovered until Victorian times.
Ibn Khaldun’s factual analysis is disliked because it ‘steals the romance’ out of big events. When Pope Francis calls the Holocaust ‘unfathomable’, he exploits the strong public prejudice in favour of ‘history as mystery’. When commentators dismiss conflict as a force of nature, beyond human control, and no-one’s responsibility, they are playing a child’s game of pass-the-parcel. We cannot smugly assume that humans are ‘above’ the rest of creation; the nuclear reality, plus our capacity for aggression, gives man the potential to be evolution’s most inferior product, the only species able to end life on earth.
Can terror-rhythm theory give guidance about future events?
Terror-rhythm theory indicates that today’s ‘rising’ nations are authoritarian states, like Iran, Russia, Turkey and China. (Putin is not 'like Hitler', as Prince Charles said, but more like Stalin - a stealthy empire-builder).
The US, the EU, Western banking, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Japan and Israel/Likud have all suffered recent midlife crises, and are in decline. This explains why the UK is ;leaving the EU; why people compare Trump to Hitler; why Saudi Arabia, like the USSR in Afghanistan, is engaged in an unwinnable war; why Israel is degenerating into an 'Apartheid state'.
'Globalisation' frees entrepreneurs and investors to pursue high profits and high yields anywhere in the world, yet immigration laws prevent labour from pursuing the highest wages. So the gap between rich and poor widens. This means that the 'big four' ideologies - Islamism, Judeo-Christian fundamentalism, EU secularism, Chinese Marxism - are slowly diverging towards entrenched positions. Serious conflict can't be ruled out, as they all have access to WMD. The 2040's are the most vulnerable time, when several movements are likely to collapse. To paraphrase Bismarck; it'll probably start with 'some damn-fool business in the Middle East'.
There are several states which may collapse much sooner, within ten years; Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, North Korea.
Terror-rhythm theory indicates that today’s ‘rising’ nations are authoritarian states, like Iran, Russia, Turkey and China. (Putin is not 'like Hitler', as Prince Charles said, but more like Stalin - a stealthy empire-builder).
The US, the EU, Western banking, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Japan and Israel/Likud have all suffered recent midlife crises, and are in decline. This explains why the UK is ;leaving the EU; why people compare Trump to Hitler; why Saudi Arabia, like the USSR in Afghanistan, is engaged in an unwinnable war; why Israel is degenerating into an 'Apartheid state'.
'Globalisation' frees entrepreneurs and investors to pursue high profits and high yields anywhere in the world, yet immigration laws prevent labour from pursuing the highest wages. So the gap between rich and poor widens. This means that the 'big four' ideologies - Islamism, Judeo-Christian fundamentalism, EU secularism, Chinese Marxism - are slowly diverging towards entrenched positions. Serious conflict can't be ruled out, as they all have access to WMD. The 2040's are the most vulnerable time, when several movements are likely to collapse. To paraphrase Bismarck; it'll probably start with 'some damn-fool business in the Middle East'.
There are several states which may collapse much sooner, within ten years; Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, North Korea.
'Continuing the status quo is
a recipe for self-destruction'
-Mohammed El-Baradei
You can stay informed by checking the update section below.
I'm not sure. Isn't history just random events?
I agree. But it's not history we're talking about here - it's terror-rhythm.
Here's a parallel example. In the UK, you can't predict the weather too far ahead. A month from now, will it be rain, sun, fog, high winds? You can't say. But the climate - that's easy to predict. The cycle is always the same; Winter, Spring, Summer, Autumn.
In the same way, you can't predict the smaller events of history. But the terror-rhythm cycle always has its six predictable seasons.
I'm not sure. Isn't history just random events?
I agree. But it's not history we're talking about here - it's terror-rhythm.
Here's a parallel example. In the UK, you can't predict the weather too far ahead. A month from now, will it be rain, sun, fog, high winds? You can't say. But the climate - that's easy to predict. The cycle is always the same; Winter, Spring, Summer, Autumn.
In the same way, you can't predict the smaller events of history. But the terror-rhythm cycle always has its six predictable seasons.
What is to be done?
The best way to combat evil is for individuals to make energetic progress in doing good. Power that's modest enough to act within limits, refusing all lies, bribery and aggression, and putting Human Rights first, can always be respected. It was shown by such figures as Rosa Parks, Nelson Mandela, Gandhi, Vaclav Havel, Sophie Scholl. This may be called leadership, influence, moral authority, strength of character. It's what we all should aspire to.
'We will avoid another century
of conflict only if we understand
the forces that caused the last one'
-Niall Ferguson
None of us are responsible for the past, but all of us are responsible for the future. Tolstoy said; 'Revolution is all abject self-interest. The best way to change the world is to become a more moral person'. HG Wells said; 'History is a race between education and catastrophe'. Greater awareness of terror-rhythm will enable us to rise above this cycle. True security
depends not on bombs and deception, rather on ethical principles, courage in the
truth, justice, equality, education and Universal Human Rights.
We want a world in which all are politically and morally aware, and everyone takes part. That great Scottish economist Adam Smith wrote about 'division of labour', and this applies to politics as well.
We want a world in which all are politically and morally aware, and everyone takes part. That great Scottish economist Adam Smith wrote about 'division of labour', and this applies to politics as well.
UPDATES
7TH MARCH 2015 A BBC dramadoc last Sunday said that Croatia had 'joined the EU just as the party was ending'. If the EU is indeed crumbling, then Putin is the one chipping away at the cracks. Having offered to help Greece's debt problems, he's now obtained port facilities in Cyprus and wants airbases too. A 'hybrid warfare' policy is testing the resolve of the Baltic states. 'All credibility will evaporate from NATO', says The Week.
Iran, like Russia, is on the rise. The tottering Saudi regime is anxious because last week Shia militias and Iranian forces retook Tikrit in Iraq from IS. (Most Saudi oil is in Shia areas of the country).
IS aggression against Kurds and Syrian Alawites helps to make Turkey another growing regional power. Leader Erdogan rides the Islamist wave and has many prestige projects on the boil.
12TH MARCH 2015 In a vote of no confidence in NATO, the EU leadership now wants a European army, as a deterrent to Putin's ambition. With the euro falling, almost to parity with the dollar, the Telegraph rightly calls this Juncker's folie de grandeur.
The risks of nuclear conflict are rising, says The Economist; we're in a new era of 'strategic piracy'. Israeli leader Netanyahu's speech in the US was a travesty; OK for Israel to have WMD, not-OK for Iran to do so.
14TH MARCH In the 39 years since Mao died, China has enjoyed peace and prosperity. But growth has slowed, to around 7% last year, the lowest for 25 years. The property market is an overheated bubble. This makes China the most likely candidate for the next midlife crisis. Will it be merely a financial crash, as in Japan in 1990? Or will the leadership try to 'save face' through military action?
18TH MARCH The Scottish nationalists (SNP) have grown in influence for the last 40 years, and Alex Salmond is a typical pragmatist. They have their 'prestige project', the Edinburgh parliament. But they lost the referendum last year, and now they seem to be past their peak. Will new leader Nicola Sturgeon accept defeat with good grace, or will she stir up a kerfuffle as all good status-seekers do? Very fishy; watch this space.
24TH MARCH President Obama's hair has turned from black to white in the seven years of his presidency, and no wonder. As a typical moderator, he tries to please everybody - neocons, Zionists, and moderate Moslems; and no-one believes that he's trying hard enough.
27TH MARCH Saudi Arabia and its allies have attacked the Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen. Have they opened up a Pandora's box for themselves? There are similarities with the collapse of the USSR here, after it intervened in the Afghan civil war in the 1980's. The late King Abdullah = the Saudi Brezhnev?
There's no doubting that Iran is on the rise. While the US seeks Iran's support in the fight against IS, supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei shouts 'Death to America' before a baying crowd.
31ST MARCH Unlikely as it sounds, I think the re-elected Netanyahu is obliged to play the role of moderator. That's to say, he talks tough, but acts soft; trying to please both sides.
The Likud revolution passed its peak some time ago, probably at the time of the botched 2006 invasion of Lebanon. Since then, aggression has been suppressed; no invasions or occupations of neighbouring countries; just internal disputes. Settlement building has slowed. Also, Netanyahu knows he cannot bomb Iran's nuclear facilities without offending the US.
14TH APRIL Easter was a time to reflect that not everyone plays the terror-rhythm game. Many have made sacrifices in opposing the powerful; Sophie Scholl, Gandhi, Vaclav Havel, Mandela.
The Iran/US deal indicates waning American power; In 2004, the US aimed to bring democracy to Iraq, and bomb Iran. Now they have ISIS in Iraq, and an alliance with Iran. Funny old world.
23RD APRIL Saudi Arabia now spends more on weapons than the UK does. They are also supplying Bentleys to successful pilots.
27TH APRIL Japan is another US ally in decline. It has stagnated for 25 years following its midlife crisis in 1990. Now the Abe government seems to be sliding into militancy, as it negotiates new defence deals with the US. Can we expect a war between Japan and North Korea/China within the next ten years?
7TH MAY Chinese expansion continues, but at a cost.
12TH MARCH 2015 In a vote of no confidence in NATO, the EU leadership now wants a European army, as a deterrent to Putin's ambition. With the euro falling, almost to parity with the dollar, the Telegraph rightly calls this Juncker's folie de grandeur.
The risks of nuclear conflict are rising, says The Economist; we're in a new era of 'strategic piracy'. Israeli leader Netanyahu's speech in the US was a travesty; OK for Israel to have WMD, not-OK for Iran to do so.
14TH MARCH In the 39 years since Mao died, China has enjoyed peace and prosperity. But growth has slowed, to around 7% last year, the lowest for 25 years. The property market is an overheated bubble. This makes China the most likely candidate for the next midlife crisis. Will it be merely a financial crash, as in Japan in 1990? Or will the leadership try to 'save face' through military action?
18TH MARCH The Scottish nationalists (SNP) have grown in influence for the last 40 years, and Alex Salmond is a typical pragmatist. They have their 'prestige project', the Edinburgh parliament. But they lost the referendum last year, and now they seem to be past their peak. Will new leader Nicola Sturgeon accept defeat with good grace, or will she stir up a kerfuffle as all good status-seekers do? Very fishy; watch this space.
24TH MARCH President Obama's hair has turned from black to white in the seven years of his presidency, and no wonder. As a typical moderator, he tries to please everybody - neocons, Zionists, and moderate Moslems; and no-one believes that he's trying hard enough.
27TH MARCH Saudi Arabia and its allies have attacked the Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen. Have they opened up a Pandora's box for themselves? There are similarities with the collapse of the USSR here, after it intervened in the Afghan civil war in the 1980's. The late King Abdullah = the Saudi Brezhnev?
There's no doubting that Iran is on the rise. While the US seeks Iran's support in the fight against IS, supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei shouts 'Death to America' before a baying crowd.
31ST MARCH Unlikely as it sounds, I think the re-elected Netanyahu is obliged to play the role of moderator. That's to say, he talks tough, but acts soft; trying to please both sides.
The Likud revolution passed its peak some time ago, probably at the time of the botched 2006 invasion of Lebanon. Since then, aggression has been suppressed; no invasions or occupations of neighbouring countries; just internal disputes. Settlement building has slowed. Also, Netanyahu knows he cannot bomb Iran's nuclear facilities without offending the US.
14TH APRIL Easter was a time to reflect that not everyone plays the terror-rhythm game. Many have made sacrifices in opposing the powerful; Sophie Scholl, Gandhi, Vaclav Havel, Mandela.
The Iran/US deal indicates waning American power; In 2004, the US aimed to bring democracy to Iraq, and bomb Iran. Now they have ISIS in Iraq, and an alliance with Iran. Funny old world.
23RD APRIL Saudi Arabia now spends more on weapons than the UK does. They are also supplying Bentleys to successful pilots.
27TH APRIL Japan is another US ally in decline. It has stagnated for 25 years following its midlife crisis in 1990. Now the Abe government seems to be sliding into militancy, as it negotiates new defence deals with the US. Can we expect a war between Japan and North Korea/China within the next ten years?
7TH MAY Chinese expansion continues, but at a cost.
The new China/Pakistan deal makes India fear encirclement, while China's new airstrips in the South China sea are bad news for Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines.
28TH MAY Israel's Netanyahu does a coalition deal with the extreme right. How long before the tail wags the dog?
18TH JUNE we celebrate the 200th anniversary of Waterloo this week, the final defeat of Napoleon I. This was not the end of Bonapartism. a vengeful nephew of Napoleon's seized power in 1848-51 as Napoleon III, a bumbling tyrant who led France into disastrous wars in Italy, Mexico, and against the Prussians. Waterloo, therefore, was a midlife crisis, not a collapse.
25TH JUNE Does the West understand the dynamics of the Ukrainian conflict? NATO has fulfilled its original tasks long ago - to 'keep the USSR out, the Germans down, and the US in'. But still it expands, from the original 10 members to the present 28. The bureaucrats who run it may think this is good - it keeps them in work - yet it is all pure drifting. They fail to appreciate that Russia is on the rise, while the US and EU are not.
One day, Putin may call NATO's bluff.
4TH JULY one indicator of EU stagnation is the failure to co-ordinate action on illegal 'boat people' and other migrants. It's becomimg a case of 'every nation for itself'. A prelude to EU collapse?
6TH JULY Greece votes 'no' to the EU debt deal. Neither International nor EU law has mechanisms for a 'Grexit', or for a debt haircut, the statewide equivalent of bankruptcy. So where next in this sorry saga?
Turkey is anxious about Kurdish gains against IS. The last thing Turkey wants is a Kurdish state on its borders, so will they too intervene in Syria?
16TH JULY The Iran - US Treaty is a done deal, waiting only to be ratified by Congress. Israel and Saudi Arabia are unhappy; Dick Cheney is furious. Obama claims to have struck a blow for peace, but I think its more to do with 'backing a winning horse' in the Middle East.
People simplify too much when they speak of the 'Arab Spring' as a single monolithic event. What's happening in Syria is a midlife crisis, quite separate from the collapse events (of secular arabism) which happened in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt.
Can anyone explain why the US, Russia, China, India, Pakistan are allowed nuclear weapons, but Iran isn't? Which court ruled on this matter???
25TH JULY Merkel and Hollande have compromised over Greece, says The FT. Germany wants its debts repaid, France wants the Euro preserved. But Greek recovery is unlikely, Grexit will return, and cause a Franco-German split next time. Paul Krugman in the NYT says the EU 'is wedded to ideas it would like to be true, but aren't.'
13TH AUG Jeremy Corbyn is tipped to become labour's next leader; some say, the last. He is to labour what Hitler was to German Imperialism; emotional mass appeal, a wish to avenge a past defeat (the miners' strike), and a clearly-defined enemy (capitalism).
The EU has widened membership to its geographical limits; now it seeks to deepen integration; France's Hollande wants a unified EU fiscal policy.
25TH AUGUST Lebanon has had the same power-sharing regime since independence in 1944. after 'thirty golden years' came the midlife crisis; the civil war from 1975-90. Now there are riots as people complain about government incompetence... the sign of worse to come? Lebanon, like Saudi Arabia and North Korea, is a strong candidate for the next failed state.
5TH SEPT The EU continues to unravel. The latest talk is that the Schengen Agreement, which allows passport-free travel between some member states, will have to be repealed, due to the huge migrant inflow.
16TH SEPT Hungary has closed its southern border to keep out the refugees. Is this the EU equivalent of the Berlin Wall, built in 1962? thirty years later, the USSR was gone. How much more time does the EU have?
30TH SEPT Russia expands its influence again. having established a military base in Syria, it is now bombing opposition forces in support of Assad and Iran, upstaging the US in the process.
The tragic accident at Mecca, which cost 700 lives, many of them Iranians, is yet more evidence of Saudi decline. Rather similar to the Chernobyl episode, just before the collapse of the USSR.
2ND OCT Japan, having stagnated for many years, wants to rewrite the Japanese constitution to enable its military to fight overseas. A bizarre move that can only increase regional instability, draw the nation into war with North Korea or China, and hasten Japan's demise.
13TH OCT Putin is just like Napoleon; Sergei Lavrov, his foreign minister, is just like Talleyrand. They cannot march on Moscow, so they're marching into Syria instead.
21ST OCT a new Intifada seems to be underway in Israel. Closest parallel is of course apartheid South Africa after the Sharpeville massacre. same defenceless enclaves surrounded by 'master race'. Same spirit of protest. same stubborn refusal to face facts. Only difference is; US supports Israel, didn't Support apartheid. Shameful to see David Cameron at PMQs today still pretending that a 'two-state solution' is the way forward. How is Palestine to become a legitimate state, with its own weapons and defence policy? Israel will never allow it. Plus, no partition plan has ever worked before, what is different this time?
24TH OCT The UK reflects on the 600th anniversary of the battle of Agincourt, in which Henry V, (with his brothers, a typical pragmatist) defeated the French. The 100 years war was typical of terror-rhythm activity; we were up when the French were down (Edward III, Henry V) and down when the French were ahead (Richard II, Henry VI)
10th NOV War and Peace, the story of Napoleon's reckless invasion of Russia (a midlife crisis) is to be screened by the BBC.
Russian history is very regular; at least five terror-rhythm cycles in the last 300 years. 'Strong' pragmatists arise and inspire a new sense of direction; Peter the Great, Catherine the Great, Nicholas I, Stalin, Putin. Decline, then collapse, sets in when these depart.
14th NOV Tragic events in Paris yesterday evening, with Hollande declaring 'war without mercy' on IS. Will he use this event as an excuse to call for a European army? Is IS, which grew out of Al-Zarqawi's AQ in Iraq, similar to Hitler's Third Reich, which grew out of the Kaiser's second Reich? Or is it more like the Serbian nationalist terrorists who started World War One in Sarajevo? Either way, things may get much worse before they get better.
24th NOV Turkey, an expanding state, shoots down an aircraft belonging to Russia, another expanding state. Without any recourse to courts, police, evidence etc, Putin lashes out and calls Turks 'criminals', 'aiders of terrorists'. these are the dangers when states are well-armed and international law is weak.
26th NOV Cameron shows more inconsistency over Syria. two years ago we were going to bomb Assad; now we want to bomb Assad's enemy, IS. We cannot 'outsource our security' to the US. but we CAN outsource our security to the FSA, who will provide 'all the necessary ground troops'. Whaaat?
We are not going to do 'regime change'. But; 'we are contributing £1bn towards regime change'. Can this man be trusted?
The world is taking a long look at Saudi Arabia, which like IS beheads people, sponsors terror, and has an extremist religion. As David Gardner wrote, the country is 'like the USSR after Brezhnev'
9th DEC Donald Trump, presidential candidate, Says 'deport all Muslims' and 'London has Muslim no-go areas'. People are comparing him to Hitler for his lies and racist rhetoric, but Trump is not as bad as Hitler. we have to wait and see if worse will follow. Trumpism, the political force he represents, alas can only grow. As Sinclair Lewis said, 'when fascism comes to America, it will be carrying a cross and draped in the flag'.
28TH MAY Israel's Netanyahu does a coalition deal with the extreme right. How long before the tail wags the dog?
18TH JUNE we celebrate the 200th anniversary of Waterloo this week, the final defeat of Napoleon I. This was not the end of Bonapartism. a vengeful nephew of Napoleon's seized power in 1848-51 as Napoleon III, a bumbling tyrant who led France into disastrous wars in Italy, Mexico, and against the Prussians. Waterloo, therefore, was a midlife crisis, not a collapse.
25TH JUNE Does the West understand the dynamics of the Ukrainian conflict? NATO has fulfilled its original tasks long ago - to 'keep the USSR out, the Germans down, and the US in'. But still it expands, from the original 10 members to the present 28. The bureaucrats who run it may think this is good - it keeps them in work - yet it is all pure drifting. They fail to appreciate that Russia is on the rise, while the US and EU are not.
One day, Putin may call NATO's bluff.
4TH JULY one indicator of EU stagnation is the failure to co-ordinate action on illegal 'boat people' and other migrants. It's becomimg a case of 'every nation for itself'. A prelude to EU collapse?
6TH JULY Greece votes 'no' to the EU debt deal. Neither International nor EU law has mechanisms for a 'Grexit', or for a debt haircut, the statewide equivalent of bankruptcy. So where next in this sorry saga?
Turkey is anxious about Kurdish gains against IS. The last thing Turkey wants is a Kurdish state on its borders, so will they too intervene in Syria?
16TH JULY The Iran - US Treaty is a done deal, waiting only to be ratified by Congress. Israel and Saudi Arabia are unhappy; Dick Cheney is furious. Obama claims to have struck a blow for peace, but I think its more to do with 'backing a winning horse' in the Middle East.
People simplify too much when they speak of the 'Arab Spring' as a single monolithic event. What's happening in Syria is a midlife crisis, quite separate from the collapse events (of secular arabism) which happened in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt.
Can anyone explain why the US, Russia, China, India, Pakistan are allowed nuclear weapons, but Iran isn't? Which court ruled on this matter???
25TH JULY Merkel and Hollande have compromised over Greece, says The FT. Germany wants its debts repaid, France wants the Euro preserved. But Greek recovery is unlikely, Grexit will return, and cause a Franco-German split next time. Paul Krugman in the NYT says the EU 'is wedded to ideas it would like to be true, but aren't.'
13TH AUG Jeremy Corbyn is tipped to become labour's next leader; some say, the last. He is to labour what Hitler was to German Imperialism; emotional mass appeal, a wish to avenge a past defeat (the miners' strike), and a clearly-defined enemy (capitalism).
The EU has widened membership to its geographical limits; now it seeks to deepen integration; France's Hollande wants a unified EU fiscal policy.
25TH AUGUST Lebanon has had the same power-sharing regime since independence in 1944. after 'thirty golden years' came the midlife crisis; the civil war from 1975-90. Now there are riots as people complain about government incompetence... the sign of worse to come? Lebanon, like Saudi Arabia and North Korea, is a strong candidate for the next failed state.
5TH SEPT The EU continues to unravel. The latest talk is that the Schengen Agreement, which allows passport-free travel between some member states, will have to be repealed, due to the huge migrant inflow.
16TH SEPT Hungary has closed its southern border to keep out the refugees. Is this the EU equivalent of the Berlin Wall, built in 1962? thirty years later, the USSR was gone. How much more time does the EU have?
30TH SEPT Russia expands its influence again. having established a military base in Syria, it is now bombing opposition forces in support of Assad and Iran, upstaging the US in the process.
The tragic accident at Mecca, which cost 700 lives, many of them Iranians, is yet more evidence of Saudi decline. Rather similar to the Chernobyl episode, just before the collapse of the USSR.
2ND OCT Japan, having stagnated for many years, wants to rewrite the Japanese constitution to enable its military to fight overseas. A bizarre move that can only increase regional instability, draw the nation into war with North Korea or China, and hasten Japan's demise.
13TH OCT Putin is just like Napoleon; Sergei Lavrov, his foreign minister, is just like Talleyrand. They cannot march on Moscow, so they're marching into Syria instead.
21ST OCT a new Intifada seems to be underway in Israel. Closest parallel is of course apartheid South Africa after the Sharpeville massacre. same defenceless enclaves surrounded by 'master race'. Same spirit of protest. same stubborn refusal to face facts. Only difference is; US supports Israel, didn't Support apartheid. Shameful to see David Cameron at PMQs today still pretending that a 'two-state solution' is the way forward. How is Palestine to become a legitimate state, with its own weapons and defence policy? Israel will never allow it. Plus, no partition plan has ever worked before, what is different this time?
24TH OCT The UK reflects on the 600th anniversary of the battle of Agincourt, in which Henry V, (with his brothers, a typical pragmatist) defeated the French. The 100 years war was typical of terror-rhythm activity; we were up when the French were down (Edward III, Henry V) and down when the French were ahead (Richard II, Henry VI)
10th NOV War and Peace, the story of Napoleon's reckless invasion of Russia (a midlife crisis) is to be screened by the BBC.
Russian history is very regular; at least five terror-rhythm cycles in the last 300 years. 'Strong' pragmatists arise and inspire a new sense of direction; Peter the Great, Catherine the Great, Nicholas I, Stalin, Putin. Decline, then collapse, sets in when these depart.
14th NOV Tragic events in Paris yesterday evening, with Hollande declaring 'war without mercy' on IS. Will he use this event as an excuse to call for a European army? Is IS, which grew out of Al-Zarqawi's AQ in Iraq, similar to Hitler's Third Reich, which grew out of the Kaiser's second Reich? Or is it more like the Serbian nationalist terrorists who started World War One in Sarajevo? Either way, things may get much worse before they get better.
24th NOV Turkey, an expanding state, shoots down an aircraft belonging to Russia, another expanding state. Without any recourse to courts, police, evidence etc, Putin lashes out and calls Turks 'criminals', 'aiders of terrorists'. these are the dangers when states are well-armed and international law is weak.
26th NOV Cameron shows more inconsistency over Syria. two years ago we were going to bomb Assad; now we want to bomb Assad's enemy, IS. We cannot 'outsource our security' to the US. but we CAN outsource our security to the FSA, who will provide 'all the necessary ground troops'. Whaaat?
We are not going to do 'regime change'. But; 'we are contributing £1bn towards regime change'. Can this man be trusted?
The world is taking a long look at Saudi Arabia, which like IS beheads people, sponsors terror, and has an extremist religion. As David Gardner wrote, the country is 'like the USSR after Brezhnev'
9th DEC Donald Trump, presidential candidate, Says 'deport all Muslims' and 'London has Muslim no-go areas'. People are comparing him to Hitler for his lies and racist rhetoric, but Trump is not as bad as Hitler. we have to wait and see if worse will follow. Trumpism, the political force he represents, alas can only grow. As Sinclair Lewis said, 'when fascism comes to America, it will be carrying a cross and draped in the flag'.
2016; HAPPY NEW YEAR FOLKS!
5TH JAN Now, a new standoff in the Middle East; Sunni Saudi Arabia has executed 47 Shia dissidents, Iranians have torched their embassy, so Saudi Arabia has cut off diplomatic links. as I've said before, it can only hasten their collapse.
13th JAN The UK government announced over Christmas (always a good time to 'bury bad news') that it was dropping its investigation into the banks. Now, the labour party isn't challenging this; it wants radical overhaul, ie nationalisation, so considers investigations superfluous.
Since 'big bang' (which enabled investment banks to merge with high street banks and gamble with customers' money) has not been repealed, nothing has really altered. The potential for another credit crunch is just as great. But what if there's no taxpayer money available for a bailout next time? What then?
25th JAN Fears worldwide about Chinese growth slowing down, and the bad effects on the world economy. But a slowdown is to be expected; just as Japan slowed down in 1990. Question is; can China's leaders handle the downturn without panicking or stirring up a 'midlife crisis'?
17th FEB The BBC dramatization of 'War and Peace' draws to a close. But 6 hours of screentime is not enough to include any of Tolstoy's reflections on the nature of history. For that, you have to read the novel, or at least the last 400 pages.
Tolstoy, like this blog, regards 'Great men' as the weak slaves of history, like corks bobbing about on a tide, with no real influence on events. He asks, 'what is the cause of this sudden movement in 1812 which took the French army all the way from Paris to Moscow, and then all the way back to Paris?'
Tragically, 150 years after this was written, we still do not have an answer.
Sept 2016 sorry folks for the long absence.
The US presidential campaign... a tax cheat versus an email cheat? US on the way down? NB the Us has never been the 'global' cop that it sometimes claims to be. Police keep the peace with minimal violence...uphold the law...protect the innocent...don't sell arms...are politically neutral. The US fails on all of those tests.
How about a world 'ruled by the Chinese'? No democracy or human rights... have created a mess through their support of North Korea...sending their air force over Okinawa. No thanks.
Isnt it time for nations to bury their differences, lend support to a global, democratic world government, applying the rule of law to all nations impartially?
13th JAN The UK government announced over Christmas (always a good time to 'bury bad news') that it was dropping its investigation into the banks. Now, the labour party isn't challenging this; it wants radical overhaul, ie nationalisation, so considers investigations superfluous.
Since 'big bang' (which enabled investment banks to merge with high street banks and gamble with customers' money) has not been repealed, nothing has really altered. The potential for another credit crunch is just as great. But what if there's no taxpayer money available for a bailout next time? What then?
25th JAN Fears worldwide about Chinese growth slowing down, and the bad effects on the world economy. But a slowdown is to be expected; just as Japan slowed down in 1990. Question is; can China's leaders handle the downturn without panicking or stirring up a 'midlife crisis'?
17th FEB The BBC dramatization of 'War and Peace' draws to a close. But 6 hours of screentime is not enough to include any of Tolstoy's reflections on the nature of history. For that, you have to read the novel, or at least the last 400 pages.
Tolstoy, like this blog, regards 'Great men' as the weak slaves of history, like corks bobbing about on a tide, with no real influence on events. He asks, 'what is the cause of this sudden movement in 1812 which took the French army all the way from Paris to Moscow, and then all the way back to Paris?'
Tragically, 150 years after this was written, we still do not have an answer.
Sept 2016 sorry folks for the long absence.
The US presidential campaign... a tax cheat versus an email cheat? US on the way down? NB the Us has never been the 'global' cop that it sometimes claims to be. Police keep the peace with minimal violence...uphold the law...protect the innocent...don't sell arms...are politically neutral. The US fails on all of those tests.
How about a world 'ruled by the Chinese'? No democracy or human rights... have created a mess through their support of North Korea...sending their air force over Okinawa. No thanks.
Isnt it time for nations to bury their differences, lend support to a global, democratic world government, applying the rule of law to all nations impartially?
TABLE ONE; LIFESPAN OF A MASS-MOVEMENT
Timescale
|
The Six phases of 'terror-rhythm'
|
compare what Ibn Khaldun
said in 1381 |
Example;
Nazism
|
||
Up to fifty years
|
Clausewitz, Hegel
|
||||
Rival factions |
nomads with ‘desert attitude’
|
Unification Wars; Moltke
|
|||
Nearly always 70-80 years;
‘obvious parallels with the human
life-cycle’
|
Growth |
‘royal authority, full expansion’
|
Second Reich; Bismarck
|
||
Midlife crisis |
status-seeker
|
‘royal pomp, subservience to desires’
|
World War One; Kaiser Wilhelm
|
||
'lies and deceit; dynasty splits’
|
Weimar Republic
|
||||
Zealot
|
Third Reich; World War Two; Hitler
|
